INFLUENCE HUMAN FACTOR ON SAFETY’S PLANNING ROUTE OF WATER TRANSPORT

Abstract

The study is aimed at conducting a formal analysis of algorithms for captains to apply when planning routes in difficult navigation situations. Formal and algorithmic analysis based on decision trees made it possible to improve ergatic navigation safety systems and to predict potential risks of maritime accidents in a timely manner. The article discusses approaches enabling algorithmisization of processes of navigational situations perception by captains. A formal description of the most essential elements of captains’ human factor affecting the route planning processes is provided. Also, the issues related to perception of difficult navigation situations by captains are considered, dependences on volume and multithreading of input information are given. In order to confirm actual influence of captains’ human factor elements on safe route planning, a number of experiments have been carried out using the Navi Trainer 5000 navigation simulator and subsequent modeling by means of Data Mining. As a result of modeling, standard designs for planning water transport routes have been obtained together with the confirmation of constructed models adequacy exemplified by the factor Fs 3 - «weather conditions». The proposed approaches will further expand the capabilities of predictive possible maritime accidents models due to human factor.