EXPERIENCE OF DETERMINING THE PRIORITY OF COMPLEX PROCESS OR SYSTEM (ON THE EXAMPLE OF PHYSICAL EDUCATION AND SPORT)

Abstract

The most used in today's methods of expert assessments (questionnaires, surveys, brainstorming) have a number of underestimations, the main of which is that the consistency and logic of expert statements are not determined. To solve this problem field, a computer program has been created for collecting, saving, quantitative comparison and operational processing of the results obtained through a collective expert evaluation. The article describes the mathematical algorithm of this program. As a base of the program, due to the combination of elements of the Delphi expert survey and the method of modern theory of hierarchical systems T. Saati, the procedure of synthesis of priorities is taken, which is calculated on the basis of subjective expert estimation. The priority or weighting factor is determined on the basis of the individual judgment pair comparison principle of the expert on the priority (the degree of advantage, weight) of one component of a particular process over another. In this work, the method of simple iteration is used. The created program establishes the judgments coherence and logic degree of each of the experts. That is, by way of the estimation pair comparison of the individual expert it is not permissible to violate the coherence and logic of his estimations. A dual comparison excludes the possibility of "blind" use of an uncoordinated and illogical evaluation, requires its refinement or ignores the use of such an assessment. With the help of convenient and easy to use author's computer program, scientists were able to quickly obtain quantitative units of weighting factors of the studied components of a particular process. This allows to display all the results of an interdependent collective, logical and coordinated individual expert estimation.